Upsets are often born out of overconfidence. That's certainly the situation the Rudder football team hopes to find as the Rangers take on District 16-4A favorite Bastrop at 7:30 p.m. Friday at Bastrop Memorial Stadium.

Make no mistake, the 3-1 Bears have ample reason to be confident. First, this week is homecoming for the Bears as they enter district play after having a bye last week. Second, all four of their nondistrict games were against Class 5A opponents and their only loss came in Week Zero when Round Rock McNeil beat them 22-20.

"I would imagine they're pretty pumped," Rudder head coach C.M. Pier said. "We're coming in with a loss and they're coming in 4-0, scoring a bunch of points and not giving up a lot. People get behind on them and have to get out of their game plans. We've got to put together a good ballgame Friday night."

Fueling Bastrop's confidence perhaps more than anything else is quarterback in Josiah Monroe.

In 2009, Monroe took home the District 25-5A MVP award after he threw for 2,136 yards and 22 touchdowns. The 5-foot-9 senior has connected on 58 of 96 passes for 968 yards and 15 touchdowns this season. Monroe has also rushed for 300 yards on 26 carries, scoring three times.

"Their quarterback is one of the finest athletes in the Austin area," Pier said. "He led them to a district championship coming out of that district with Austin Westlake. He's pretty special. He'll take off running and he's still looking to pass to the very last. On one of the [scouting tapes], he ran outside to the line of scrimmage and ran down the line, waiting to pass. You just have to keep covering, covering, covering."

Monroe has a lot of help on offense. Running back Mark Jackson has rushed for 206 yards on 36 carries with two touchdowns this season. Having a rushing presence can open up play-action passes, but a receiving corps like Bastrop's also helps.

Five different players have at least eight catches and 100 yards receiving, while seven different players have scored receiving touchdowns. Chief among them is Josh Taylor, who leads Bastrop with 16 catches for 259 yards and three touchdowns.

"Everybody out there is athletic," Pier said. "Every one of their skill kids they put out in a four-wide package are athletic. They're athletic enough to catch it and do something with it. They're probably the most dangerous team we've faced athletically up to this point."

There are some chinks in the Bears' armor, though. The four 5A teams Bastrop has played have a combined record of 2-17. Excluding the games against the Bears, that record falls to 1-14.

Bastrop has also won despite not being very lucky with turnovers. The Bears currently have a plus-2 turnover margin, but that includes a game against San Marcos in which they forced four fumbles.

The area where Rudder (4-1, 1-0) could have the biggest advantage is the secondary. Bastrop has a very good group of defensive backs with tremendous speed, but they have only converted that talent into two interceptions. Both were against Austin Akins, whose quarterback has thrown five this season.

Rudder's secondary, on the other hand, has seven interceptions out of the 90 pass attempts it's defended this season.

Still, the Bears are averaging 44 points per game and have an average victory margin of 31 points. To beat Bastrop, Rudder will have to be at its best.

"Our biggest thing is execution," Pier said. "We did not execute [last week] on either side of the ball. Very basic stuff, and we have to get that ironed out. "